Post-Kremlin recognition, Afghanistan hopes Central Asian countries will follow suit

New Delhi: Earlier this month, Russia became the first country to give recognition to Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) and embrace the de facto Taliban administration in Kabul as a legitimate partner.

No other country has till now recognized the Taliban regime, which seized power in August 2021 post-US withdrawal. On April 17 this year, Russia lifted its ban on the Taliban paving the way for normalisation of relationship between the two countries. Russia was once critical about the US-led coalition's presence in Afghanistan but did not fully oppose it. Pro-US, Hamid Karzai's transitional government in Afghanistan also developed working relations with Russia. Post 2004, Russia-Afghanistan relations deteriorated due to the 'Orange Revolution' in Ukraine. In 2003, Russia had outlawed the Taliban, but the situation changed in 2015 and regular meetings began in Kabul and Moscow from 2016. However, all these contacts were behind the scenes.

On July 3, Afghanistan's newly-appointed Ambassador to Moscow, Gul Hassan Hassan presented copies of his credentials to the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko. In posts on X, the Russian Ambassador Dmitry A. Zhirnov officially conveyed the Russian government’s decision to recognise the IEA by the Russian Federation. It is relevant to mention that during the worst crisis in Afghanistan in August 2021, Russia had adopted a pragmatic approach, keeping its Embassy open in Kabul and giving recognition to Taliban diplomats.

Meanwhile, Taliban's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi has thanked Russia for the decision. He said Moscow's "courageous and historic step" will set an example for others as both countries now will be able to sign trade and other agreements. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Chief Spokesperson of the Taliban government, observed that Afghanistan's diplomatic relations with Russia will be reliable as Russia also requires regional connectivity and trade. Afghanistan has that capacity.

Russia's official recognition of the Afghan regime will certainly give some international legitimacy to the Taliban rulers. Russia sees Afghanistan as a key transit corridor and a potential export market. In 2025, Russia-Afghanistan bilateral trade is likely to touch USD $ 3 billion. Russia will now export more wheat, oil and gas to energy-hungry Afghanistan.

Moreover, Russia's diplomatic recognition of Afghanistan will bolster the Central Asian Republics (CARs), who have their own strategies in balancing security risks and larger economic cooperation.

Uzbekistan was the first CAR to host a Taliban delegation in Termez in September 2021 which was led by Acting Deputy Prime Minister Mawlawi Abdul Salam Hanafi, an ethnic Uzbek. Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, visited Samarkand in April 2023 to attend the fourth meeting of Afghanistan's neighbouring foreign ministers. The foreign ministers of CARs pledged to work in the areas of security, economic development and connectivity.

Playing a pivotal role in Afghanistan's infrastructure development, landlocked Uzbekistan signed a trilateral agreement with Afghanistan and Pakistan in July 2023 to develop the 573 km Trans-Afghan railway linking Mazar-e-Sharif to Pakistani deep sea ports as well as Iran's Chabahar port. The estimated cost of the project has been assessed at USD $4.6 billion as per the Uzbek Transport Design and Research Institute.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, led a high-ranking Taliban delegation to Uzbekistan in February this year. According to Baradar’s office, the Taliban’s Deputy Prime Minister reiterated the group’s policy of neutrality in foreign affairs. "Our foreign policy towards neighbouring and regional countries is based on neutrality and non-interference, and we expect the same from our neighbours and the international community," he stated. Baradar also assured regional nations that Afghan territory would not pose a security threat to them.

Further, Uzbekistan would complete the construction of Khalqlaar Bazaar border market providing a 15-day visa free travel to Afghan citizens. In 2024, Uzbekistan-Afghanistan bilateral trade was USD $1.1 billion. Notably, in Central Asia, Uzbekistan shares a 144 km long border with Afghanistan, the shortest of Uzbekistan's external border.

Turkmenistan is another significant country which provides oil and gas to Afghanistan. Turkmen investment in Afghanistan includes the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) project, which will deliver 33 bcm of natural gas annually extracted from the Galkynysh gas field in Mary province in southeast Turkmenistan. In Islim Cheshma last September, officials on both sides, including Afghan Prime Minister Hassan Akhund, saw the completion of the TAPI project on the Turkmen side of the border. Work has started on the Afghan side as well. The TAPI project is a USD $10 billion gas pipeline traversing South Asia. In May 2024, 13 commercial contracts worth USD $200 million were cemented in Kabul. A USD $7 million agreement was signed in September 2024 for three railway projects, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan (TAT) railway, the Aqina-Andkhoy extension, and the Turgundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boldak line, connecting Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border is approximately 804 km long.

Taliban activities have caused a security challenge for Tajikistan as radical Islamist militant outfits have been operating along the Tajik-Afghan border which is 1,357 km long. The Taliban regime has been accused of sheltering militants as the Tajik leadership has failed to persuade Kabul to form an inclusive government representing Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and other minorities. In Moscow's strategic calculus, Dushanbe-Kabul strategic interests need urgent attention. The Kremlin understands the difficulties in Tajik-Afghan relationship.

From geopolitical perspectives and given Afghanistan's strategic significance in future energy and infrastructure projects, Russia's enhanced presence in its close neighbourhood will enable it to play a more proactive role. Additionally, Russia will fill the vacuum created by the US withdrawal in August 2021 which was celebrated in Afghanistan. In July 2024, Russian President, Vladimir Putin had commented that Taliban had become a crucial partner in Russia's counter-terrorism efforts.

Afghanistan is looking for recognition from as many countries as possible and position itself as a reliable partner for cooperation. Post-Kremlin recognition of the IEA, it is expected that the CARs will follow suit.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

--IANS

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