Premier League table based on xG: Title race frontrunners and shock relegation candidates

Just a fortnight into the 2025/26Premier League season and some clubs are already showing their mettle. After the initial rounds of matches, an intriguing alternative perspective of the league standings has surfaced.

Over the weekend, there were some standout results. Manchester City were left stunned by a surprise 2-0 home loss to Tottenham on Saturday, while Manchester United'swoes persisted with a 1-1 stalemate at Fulham.

Reigning champions Liverpool, albeit unimpressively, clinched two victories from two on Monday night at Newcastle, thanks to a last-minute winner from 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha. Chelsea also turned heads with a resounding 5-1 triumph over West Ham United.

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With a whopping 36 match rounds still to go, there's a lot of football yet to be played. However, with assistance from stats gurus Opta, a table based on each team's expected goals has been compiled, offering a unique measure of performance thus far.

Expected goals (xG) is a metric derived from the value of chances and shots on goal from each Premier League team and has become a popular tool for assessing teams and performances. It provides a theoretical estimate of the number of goals a team should have scored. The table utilises statistics and data from the first two games of the season.

Now it's not perfect. How else do you explain Chelsea topping the table? Because they failed to net in the 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace on opening day - and arguably deserved to lose that game - but following their emphatic victory over West Ham on Friday night where they created chances galore, they boast an xG Chelsea of 4.35.

Arsenal sit second, with a 4.19 xG, having outperformed their expected goals by 1.81 after netting six in their first two matches. Meanwhile, Man Utd's struggles in the final third are evident, with Leny Yoro's solitary goal from a corner being their only goal so far this season. The data reveals that Ruben Amorim's squad has an xG of 3.15, which is 2.15 goals less than what they've actually scored.

Brighton, who failed to find the back of the net against Everton, have the worst 'Goals vs XG' ratio at -2.91.

Manchester City's xG stands at 4.02, largely due to their 4-0 thrashing of Wolves. Liverpool, following their thrilling victory over Newcastle, have an xG of 2.9 despite scoring seven goals in their opening two fixtures. Nottingham Forest and Brentford have an xG of 2.76 and 2.70 respectively, with the former scoring four goals and the latter underperforming with just two goals. Newcastle's xG is slightly lower than Liverpool's at 2.4.

Both Tottenham and Sunderland have exceeded their xG. Thomas Frank's side have found the net five times compared to their 3.43 xG, while Sunderland, despite failing to score at Burnley, are still outperforming their 1.53 xG.

Worryingly for Aston Villa, who narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification last season, is the fact that Unai Emery's side are third from bottom in the table.

xG Premier League table

Position	Team	xG
1.	Chelsea	4.35
2.	Arsenal	4.19
3.	Man City	4.02
4.	Brighton	3.91
5.	Tottenham	3.43
6.	Man Utd	3.15
7.	Bournemouth	2.99
8.	Liverpool	2.9
9.	Nottingham Forest	2.76
10.	Brentford	2.70
11.	Fulham	2.52
12.	Newcastle	2.4
13.	Everton	2.4
14.	Leeds United	2.30
15.	Burnley	1.93
16.	Crystal Palace	1.76
17.	Sunderland	1.53
18.	Aston Villa	1.39
19.	West Ham	1.29
20.	Wolves	1.02

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