Yes, things are going appallingly for Labour... but where are all the Conservatives?

We all know how absolutely appalling things are for Labour, as we approach the local elections. They've gone from polling in the high 40s just a year ago to less than half that now. And we know the reason too: Starmer and co over-promised and under-delivered. By a country mile. They deserve what's coming.

But things are, if anything, worse for the Tories. Is five years a long time ago? Not really. Not in the grand scheme of things. Well, here's a statistic that will make Tories weep. On April 7, 2020, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson in intensive care and fighting for his life, and a genuinely shocked nation wishing him well, the Conservatives polled a staggering 57%. That's right, nearly six out of every ten voters said they supported the Tories. Just half a decade ago.

Any now? My, how things have changed. Kemi Badenoch's band are currently averaging a humiliatingly 22%, trailing both Labour and Reform, with even the Lib Dems hot on their heels. This means that they've lost nearly two-thirds of their April 2020 support. Perhaps it wasn't such a good idea winning that 2019 election after all.

Frankly, it's tough to actually find a Tory these days. The ones I know have either shifted rightwards to Reform, leftwards to the Lib Dems or just can't be bothered. Remarkably, I know one or two who voted for Keir Starmer last summer, though they've kept pretty quiet about that recently. I would too, if I were them.

It all bodes terribly - I mean really terribly - for next week. Yes, we'll give a big shout-out to the indefatigable Robert Jenrick, who's scored some massive hits. Good on him. But he's not the leader, and can't pull the load by himself. Mel Stride has torn into Rachel Reeves with gusto. But has the average voter really noticed? How many would recognise him down the pub?

It already seems like the only way the Conservatives can avoid a load of egg all over their faces on Thursday week is another big "shy Tory" turnout. We've seen those many times before, with folk declaring for anyone but the Blues before polling day then secretly changing their minds in the cheeky privacy of the booth. Better the devil you know.

But that's a phenomenon that tends to kick in at general elections. Local elections? Not so much. Local elections tend to attract protest votes, and the Tories, after 14 years in power, can hardly lay claim to those. So, it looks set to be a great night for the LibDems, Greens and, of course, Reform. The Tories will remain on the naughty step.

Those with long memories will remember pretty terrible days in the late '90s and early noughties. But at least then the Tories faced only a big beast to their left (Labour under Blair) and not today's terrifying war on two fronts, with a snarling, merciless Farage taking vast bite-sized chunks out of much of what Kemi Badenoch might have assumed to be her electoral coalition.

And that brings us back to the sheer difficulty of finding Tory voters these days. We don't need to examine the polls, line by line, rating by rating, to know that Tory support, if not yet haemorrhaging, is dripping away through a very leaky tap.

I struggle to name any of my friends and contacts whom I know for sure will vote Conservative next week. And that's the first time I've ever felt that way. Sadly, then, for Badenoch, she has it all to do. And her party isn't known for its patience. Can she survive if the results are as awful as seems likely? I retain the faith. But only just.