Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 16, 2025 - should you buy or sell?

Gold price prediction today : Gold prices have been volatile in the last few days amidst geopolitical uncertainties. Where are they headed and what should investors do - buy, sell or hold gold? What gold rate levels should you watch out for? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains:

Gold Market Overview:

MCX Gold June 2025 contract is displaying bearish technical patterns after forming a lower high at ₹93400 levels. The precious metal has recently completed a V-shaped recovery from its lows of ₹91600 but appears to be facing strong resistance at current levels. The price action suggests exhaustion in the recovery rally, presenting attractive sell opportunities for intraday traders.

Technical Analysis

Current price: ₹93239

Key Technical Indicators:

• Bollinger Bands: Price has approached the upper band and shows signs of rejection, indicating potential reversal
• RSI (14): At 66.32, approaching overbought territory with negative divergence forming
• Moving Averages: The recovery has pushed price near the 8-day EMA, but still well below the bearish 21-day EMA (₹96500)
• Pivot Points: Previous day's pivot resistance levels acting as strong barriers to upward movement
• Price Pattern: Formation of bearish engulfing pattern near the recent high suggests selling pressure

Sell-on-Rise Strategy: Entry Parameters:

• Primary Sell Zone: ₹93350-93450
• Secondary Sell Zone: ₹93650-93750 (if market extends rally)
• Stop Loss: ₹93950 (above recent swing high)
• Target 1: ₹92800 (previous support level)
• Target 2: ₹92400 (next significant support)
• Target 3: ₹91800 (for aggressive traders)

Execution Guidelines:

• Look for bearish candlestick patterns (shooting star, bearish engulfing) in the sell zone
• Confirm with RSI showing negative divergence or crossing below 65
• Volume should ideally be higher on down moves than up moves
• Maintain strict stop loss discipline regardless of analysis

Breakdown Strategy: Entry Parameters:

• Breakdown Level: Below ₹93100 (crucial support)
• Entry Price: ₹93100
• Stop Loss: ₹93350
• Target 1: ₹92850
• Target 2: ₹92750
• Target 3: ₹92600 (for aggressive traders)

Execution Guidelines:

• Wait for a decisive break below ₹93100 with increased volume
• Confirm breakdown with 15-minute candle close below the level
• RSI should preferably be below 50 for confirmation
• Avoid entry if breakdown occurs with very low volume

Market Outlook

Gold appears vulnerable to further downside in the immediate term. The recent recovery lacks strength and is likely a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. The metal faces significant overhead resistance at ₹93500-₹94000 levels, while support structures appear to be weakening.

The bearish bias is reinforced by:

1. Formation of lower highs on daily timeframe
2. Failure to reclaim the 21-day EMA
3. RSI showing potential negative divergence
4. Negative global cues for precious metals

Risk Factors

• Unexpected dollar weakness
• Geopolitical developments
• Dovish Federal Reserve commentary
• Inflation data surprises

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)