A Tesla investor has expressed a lack of confidence in the company's upcoming Full Self Driving (FSD)-based ride-hailing service. Gary Black, a managing partner at Future Fund LLC that invests in Tesla, believes that the Elon Musk-led electric vehicle manufacturer may not generate profit from its robotaxi service for several years. He shared his views on the social media platform X (earlier Twitter), outlining critical challenges Tesla faces. Black stated that Tesla will need to build a network of riders and noted that the EV maker will have to compete with other ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft.
Black has predicted that Uber and Lyft will also offer cheaper driverless options. He even believes that with three players competing for riders, Tesla's ride-hailing service may not be profitable for years, even if it secures autonomous ride-hailing deployment licenses in every state.
In the X post, Black wrote: “You are missing that $TSLA can’t just create a network of 24M active riders. Assuming TSLA can get autonomous ride hailing deployment licenses in every state, it still must compete with $Uber and $Lyft who will offer much cheaper driverless options themselves. With three players all fighting for riders TSLA may not make money on ride hailing for years.”
How Tesla plans for its FSD-based ride-hailing service are progressing
Tesla has advanced internal tests of its ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, and San Francisco, while also applying for the necessary permits in California.
The company plans to launch its robotaxi service in Austin in June and is preparing to deploy fully autonomous vehicles at Los Angeles International Airport, pending further approval from the California Public Utilities Commission and the Department of Motor Vehicles.
On X, Tesla’s official account shared a video showing one of its vehicles navigating traffic around LAX using supervised Full Self-Driving technology—a clip that Musk also reshared.
In the post, the automaker noted, “LAX is no problem for FSD Supervised.”
Black has predicted that Uber and Lyft will also offer cheaper driverless options. He even believes that with three players competing for riders, Tesla's ride-hailing service may not be profitable for years, even if it secures autonomous ride-hailing deployment licenses in every state.
You are missing that $TSLA can’t just create a network of 24M active riders. Assuming TSLA can get autonomous ride hailing deployment licenses in every state, it still must compete with $Uber and $Lyft who will offer much cheaper driverless options themselves. With three players… https://t.co/XXg33veusF
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) May 10, 2025
In the X post, Black wrote: “You are missing that $TSLA can’t just create a network of 24M active riders. Assuming TSLA can get autonomous ride hailing deployment licenses in every state, it still must compete with $Uber and $Lyft who will offer much cheaper driverless options themselves. With three players all fighting for riders TSLA may not make money on ride hailing for years.”
How Tesla plans for its FSD-based ride-hailing service are progressing
Tesla has advanced internal tests of its ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, and San Francisco, while also applying for the necessary permits in California.
The company plans to launch its robotaxi service in Austin in June and is preparing to deploy fully autonomous vehicles at Los Angeles International Airport, pending further approval from the California Public Utilities Commission and the Department of Motor Vehicles.
On X, Tesla’s official account shared a video showing one of its vehicles navigating traffic around LAX using supervised Full Self-Driving technology—a clip that Musk also reshared.
LAX is no problem for FSD Supervised https://t.co/IXWJbUUjhx
— Tesla (@Tesla) May 11, 2025
In the post, the automaker noted, “LAX is no problem for FSD Supervised.”
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